Moscow retail market posts no completions in Q1 2016 for the first time in a decade
According to JLL estimates, for the first time since 2007, no new shopping centers were completed in Moscow Q1. This contrasts with a record 250,000 sq m introduced in Q1 2015.
Despite a slow start, around 460,000 sq m of new quality shopping centres are on track to enter the Moscow market in 2016, with most projects’ opening announced for Q2-Q3. Riviera, Riga Mall, Oceania, Butovo Mall, Polezhaevskaya are among the largest upcoming schemes.
The majority of 2016 completions are postponed projects. Due to putting on hold several announced projects by developers with no new schemes to be announced the existing downward trend is likely to be continued over 2017-2018.
“Relatively large volume of new shopping centre supply in the last two years (over 1.1m sq m) amid struggling economy and shrinking demand from retailers drove up vacancy rates,” – Konstantin Loginov, Retail Market Analyst, JLL, Russia & CIS, notes. – “The lack of new projects in Q1 brought the average vacancy rate down to 8% (-0.3 pp QoQ). However, upcoming completions will likely push vacancies into double digits in H2 2016.”
Rents in Moscow shopping centres did not change in Q1 2016: prime rents for shopping gallery varied between USD1,700-3,220/sq m/year; average rents between USD300-1,200/sq m/year. “Retail gallery premises of successful shopping centres are still exposed in US dollars. However, the market continues to shift to ruble deals. This also applies to contracts renegotiated during the last two years,” – Tatyana Malyanova, Shopping Center Agency Director, JLL, Russia & CIS, comments. – “Removing the currency risk helps attract retailers to new shopping centers and achieve gradual absorption.”
 This and other figures refer to gross leasing area (GLA).